Bavarian Nordic shares fell 12% after mpox sales fell in the third quarter

Bavarian Nordic said that quarterly and annual comparisons are challenging due to the dynamic nature of outbreaks and order size. Image credit: Shutterstock/Sonia Bonet.

Bavarian Nordic has already secured a sizable chunk of revenue for 2025 through orders for its smallpox/smallpox vaccine, but financial results for the shot fell in the third quarter.

The Danish infectious disease specialist has USD 340 million (DKK 2.4 million) lined up through orders for its MVA-BN vaccine known under the brands Jynneos, Imvanex and Imvamune. Bavarian Nordic is one of only a handful of companies making an mpox vaccine amid an ongoing outbreak of the disease in Africa.

Although some future revenue has been secured, sales for the business were still down 26% in the third quarter of this year compared to last, according to a Nov. 15 financial release. Jynneos, along with its other brands, generated $74.4 million, down from the $100.3 million made in the same period last year. In the first nine months of the year, the difference is even greater – a deficit of 46%.

Third-quarter results were announced before markets opened on November 15 and shares in the Copenhagen-listed company opened 12.1% down. Several shares of vaccine companies have been negatively affected today as US President-elect Donald Trump aannounced that he would appoint Robert F Kennedy Jr as head of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). Other vaccine manufacturers, including Pfizer, Sanofiand BioNTechalso suffered blows to its share prices.

In its third quarter results, Bavarian Nordic stated that “sales are affected by outbreaks and/or larger orders from time to time, making quarterly or annual comparisons more challenging”.

“However, sales for 2024 are fully in line with the company’s expectations and the available inventory will ensure that the remaining expected orders for 2024 can be delivered in the fourth quarter of the year,” the company added.

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Recent clients include the US government, which has placed multi-year orders valued at more than $220 million, according to Bavarian Nordic. The orders from the US Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) focus primarily on replenishing stocks used during the previous mpox outbreak in 2022/2023. The European Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has purchased 175,420 doses to combat the ongoing situation in Africa, along with an order for 1 million doses by UNICEF. Finally, an unnamed European country ordered 440,000 doses.

Bavarian Nordic stated that the majority of these newly contracted orders, along with additional smaller supply contracts, are due for delivery in 2024 and 2025. Bavarian has previously said it may deliver 13 million doses of the vaccine by the end of 2025 by prioritizing production along with potentially transferring manufacturing to Africa. As a result, Bavarian Nordic expects revenue from public emergency operations to exceed the previously expected base of $210 million to $280 million in 2025, although it did not provide new guidance.

Apart from pandemic-dependent products, Bavarian Nordic reported strong gains in its travel health portfolio. Revenue increases for rabies vaccine Rabipur/RabAver, tick-borne encephalitis vaccine Encepur and cholera vaccine Vaxchora boosted the company’s travel health business revenue by 21% in the third quarter compared to last year.

Bavarian Nordic could add a new vaccine to its immunization lists next year in the form of a chikungunya vaccine. The company said preparations are underway for a 2025 launch as the vaccine is currently undergoing testing regulatory reviews in both the US and Europe.