The Mets’ top 5 offseason questions include can they court Juan Soto and how much will they spend in total? (Video)
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The Mets’ top 5 offseason questions include can they court Juan Soto and how much will they spend in total? (Video)

The The 2024 New York Mets was a whirlwind, an exhausting, exhilarating thrill ride of improbability. They were a ragtag group of well-paid misfits, with the magic of an anthropomorphic purple blob and a Latin pop ear mask. The Mets rode the good vibes all the way to the NLCS. An MVP sophomore campaign from shortstop Francisco Lindor also helped.

Here are the five main questions that will shape what is sure to be a fascinating and active winter in Queens.

Mets owner Steve Cohen is, according to Forbesthe 39th richest person in America. Since buying the Mets in 2020 for $2.4 billion, Cohen has poured a fortune into his new toy. Once a circus of thrift, the Mets organization has revamped its reputation and is now firmly considered one of sports’ financial giants.

NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 26: New York Mets owner Steven A Cohen looks on during the national anthem before the game between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday, June 26, 2024 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 26: New York Mets owner Steven A Cohen looks on during the national anthem before the game between the New York Yankees and the New York Mets at Citi Field on Wednesday, June 26, 2024 in New York, New York. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

The Mets and team owner Steven Cohen could be aggressive in this free agent market after making a run to the NLCS this past season. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) (Daniel Shirey via Getty Images)

Last offseason, the club’s first under new president of baseball operations David Stearns, the Mets focused on depth by signing a slew of players to one-year deals. These smart acquisitions helped propel the 2024 OMG Mets into the annals of New York sports history and put the Mets back on a winning path. But with so many important contributors reaching free agencyThe Mets could look drastically different next season.

And different might mean better given that the Mets have the financial flexibility to be extremely active. The current projected payroll comes in about $170 million lower than the 2024 cap hit of $336 million. But how high will it go? Stearns, who cut his teeth with the frugal Milwaukee Brewers, has a track record of working conservatively. Cohen, on the other hand, is the anti-Scrooge. Given how high the payroll has gone in the past, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Mets commit a lot of money to free agents this winter.

We know that Juan Soto will command a contract for at least $550 million, a figure that Cohen and Co. surely can afford. Anything the Yankees offer Cohen could theoretically reach into his infinite hedge fund riches and outbid his rivals across town. Soto’s agent, Scott Boras, will count on this exact dynamic to drive the price up.

And so the Mets’ run on Soto will come down to three dynamics:

  • Did Sotos’ one year in the Bronx do enough to convince him to take less money (but still a lot of money) to become a Yankee?

  • How high are the Yankees willing to go?

  • Can the Mets convince Soto that Queens is best for him?

How the Soto sweepstakes plays out will dictate the rest of the Mets’ offseason. If they reel in the big fish, they’ll work a bit more wisely to fill out the roster. If the Mets miss out on Soto, their pivot could be a windfall for other highly touted free agents.

No one has ripped more homers at Citi Field than Alonso, who delivered an underwhelming season in the final year of his contract. Yet the happy-go-lucky basher still clubbed 34 long balls in 2024, while finishing the year with a strikeout line 23% above league average. It’s also important to consider what he means to the franchise; Alonso started 86% of the games at first base for the team since his debut in 2019 and is currently just 32 homers behind the all-time Mets record of 252 held by Darryl Strawberry. By (1) staying in Queens and (2) delivering a few more productive seasons, Alonso would become a franchise icon.

Still, there are plenty of reasons to be wary of Alonso’s profile. He is a relatively unathletic right-handed hitting first baseman on the wrong side of 30 years old who is not a good defender. Sluggers of that sort don’t often age well. The “smart” move would be to let Alonso go, move 2024 breakout Mark Vientos from third (where he’s a subpar glove) to first (where he’d be fine) and find a new third baseman. That pace is far from a given and there aren’t many other players available who can offer such bankable home run power.

The Mets Can sign Soto and Alonso, but will they want it? Both players, as they age, would require at-bats at DH. Having two one-dimensional sluggers on the same roster can create a log jam. On the other hand, the two would form a formidable right-left combo in the middle of the lineup for a long time.

Will the Mets’ offer be Alonso’s highest bid? Probably not. His free agency could come down to (1) the gap between the Mets and the next best offer and (2) whether Alonso would choose continuity over cash.

The rotation was crucial to New York’s surprise season, but three-fifths of that group — Sean Manaea, Luis Severino and José Quintana — are on the open market this winter. That leaves behind Japanese shortstop Kodai Senga, who was injured for most of 2024, and left-hander David Peterson. Those two, if healthy, have starting spots locked up. Tylor Megill and Paul Blackburn could be in the mix, but both are best used as depth options. That means the Mets will have to add at least two starters, but probably three.

Stearns was surprisingly open about this dynamic, telling reporters at his year-end press conference that “We’re going to have to add starting pitching. We’re going to have to add several starters. We understand that. We went into last offseason with the same needs and I think we will be able to do it.”

There’s no question the Mets could use a no-doubt ace at the front of their rotation. Only three or four free-agent hurlers fit that bill: Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell, Max Fried and Roki Sasaki, with Burnes being the most reliable option. Snell has two Cy Youngs to his name, but durability is a concern. Fried has a great track record in run prevention, but is best paired with a strong infield defense. Sasaki may have a higher ceiling than anyone else on earthbut one cannot be trusted to direct a staff directly from Japan. Expect the Mets, with or without Soto, to be heavy on this quartet. Beyond that, a Severino return feels most likely, as sources told Yahoo Sports that the hurler is extremely interested in a reunion.

As Stearns mentioned, the Mets put together a pretty impressive rotation through free agency last year and they can count on doing so again.

In the team’s four NLCS losses, the Mets surrendered nine, eight, 10 and 10 runs to the eventual World Series champions. The bull market in particular was stretched thin throughout October. Skipper Carlos Mendoza leaned heavily on the two or three arms he trusted — Edwin Díaz, Ryne Stanek, Reed Garrett — because he didn’t have much else. That wasn’t a problem in shorter series during the wild-card round and NLDS, but in a seven-game set against the Dodgers, the Mets were exposed.

The Mets need more relievers and better, hurlers they can count on in huge postseason spots. They’re unlikely to trade in the upper end of the bullpen market considering they already have a big-money guy there in Díaz. But expect Stearns to add a handful of relievers on shorter deals, especially those with big-game experience. Kirby Yates, Blake Treinen and Jeff Hoffman all fit the bill.