TALLAHASSEE, Florida – The Sunshine State is facing a widespread mid-work week rain event stemming from the combination of a strong frontal boundary and moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Sara.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, the storm system will move through the Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Forecast models suggest the worst rainfall will occur along the Interstate 10 corridor, where a widespread 2-3 inches of rainfall could occur, with locally higher amounts.

Cities such as New OrleansMobile and Pensacola are all in the zone that could see the heaviest rainfall, while much of the Florida peninsula is expected to see only about 1″ of rain.

Exact impacts will depend on how much moisture flows north from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico associated with remnants of Tropical storm Sara, but early indications are that the moisture will be fairly minimal compared to past Central American gyres and atmospheric river events.

Tropical Storm Sara hits Central America with catastrophic flooding as airports halt travel

A combination of hostile upper-level winds, dry air, and land interaction prevented the eighteenth storm from ever becoming a hurricane but still led to catastrophic flood in countries such as Honduras and Nicaragua.

The countries are susceptible to floods and natural disasters due to their terrain and socio-economic factors.

In 2020, aid groups estimated that more than a quarter of a million residents were displaced after Hurricanes Eta and Iota, and in 1998, over 11,000 were killed during the impact of Hurricane Mitch.

Some of the same wording used by meteorologists to warn the Appalachians in advance Hurricane Helene was used to warn Central American residents of the dangers posed by Sara.

“There’s a big history in Honduras of deadly floods. I was down there actually after Hurricane Mitch, and it was one of the most tragic things I’ve ever seen in my life. Whole hillsides coming down and just wiping out homes and homes, falling from slopes while families were in them. It happens in Honduras where there are very mountainous areas. And, of course, many people were very distressed there.” said FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross.

When is the typical last hurricane on the US coast?

A a widespread severe weather outbreak is not expectedand National Weather Service meteorologists in south and central Florida believe the event will not be as impactful as the weather that will affect other parts of the country with snowfall and heavy rain.

“From now on, Wednesday into early Thursday could be a period to watch for severe weather, although sensible weather impacts are somewhat limited, with gusty (likely less severe) showers and brief heavy downpours moving through the region if current model forecasts are realized,” meteorologists at the NWS office in Miami stated.

One element that all forecasters agree on is that the event will be fairly quick, which will help limit the risk of widespread flooding.

“So, we’re going to be ready for just nasty weather on Wednesday,” Norcross said. “It’s going to move pretty quickly as the cool, dry air moves in from the north and the tropical air moves up from the south — the combination that produces the nasty weather … but it’s moving, and we’re getting a real cold front moving through Florida and a big change in the weather.”

Original article source: Potential impacts from the remnants of Tropical Storm Sara for the Gulf Coast, Florida