It is only a matter of time before India overtakes Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy, experts say, with some predicting the milestone could come within two years.

Japan’s economy stood at $4.22 trillion in 2023, just ahead of India’s $3.55 trillion.

“Based on our existing forecasts, we had expected India to overtake Japan by 2026,” Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, told. Japan Times.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts India’s real GDP growth, which adjusts for inflation, at 7 percent for 2024, after 8.2 percent in 2023 and 7 percent in 2022. Growth is expected to remain strong at 6.5 percent annually in 2025 and 2026.

Japan has a darker outlook. The IMF expects Japan’s economy to grow by just 0.3 percent this year, down from 1.7 percent in 2023 and 1.2 percent in 2022. Japan continues to grapple with structural challenges.

Inflation, a weak yen and slow growth remain prominent concerns for voters and policymakers alike. These issues were central to last month’s snap election called by Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, in which the coalition led by his liberal Democratic Party lost power for the first time in over a decade. Despite this setback, Ishiba managed to retain his post in a parliamentary vote on Monday.

Meanwhile, India’s medium-term outlook appears robust, with sectors such as trade, agriculture and artificial intelligence driving growth.

“India is poised for growth, and with a young and dynamic workforce (it is) well positioned to shape the global economic landscape,” Abhishek Tomar of the S&P Global India Leadership Council said in a September press release.

S&P Global predicts that India could rise further to become the world’s third largest economy by 2030 or 2031.

Newsweek contacted the Japanese and Indian foreign ministries with e-mail requests for comment outside office hours.

The US, which remains the world’s largest economy, is forecast to achieve 2.8 percent GDP growth this year, slowing to 2.2 percent by 2025.

However, it remains to be seen how the economic policy of Donald Trumpwho begins his second term as US president in January, could affect global trade dynamics. Trump’s proposed tariffsincluding a potential 60 percent levy on Chinese imports, would weigh on targeted economies but also increase costs for American consumers.

China, which passed Japanese as the world’s second-largest economy in 2010, is expected to grow 4.8 percent this year, the IMF predicts, a figure in line with the Chinese Communist Party’s target of 5 percent.

Meanwhile, Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, is expected to see zero growth in 2024, after a -0.3 percent decline last year. The IMF predicts that the European powerhouse will recover with 0.8 percent growth in 2025, although it could face headwinds if political instability continues.

While India will eclipse Japan in overall economic size, the South Asian country has a way to go to close the gap in terms of average living standards.

India’s GDP per capita is estimated at $2,700 in 2024, well below Japan’s $39,000. Even when adjusted for purchasing power parity (PPP), India lags behind, at US$11,110 per capita compared to Japan’s US$53,060.