Retail sales rose in October as Americans continue to spend
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Retail sales rose in October as Americans continue to spend

Americans increased their spending at retailers last month in the latest sign that healthy consumer spending is driving the economy’s steady growth.

Retail sales rose 0.4% from September to October, according to the Commerce Department said Fridaya solid increase if less than the previous month’s robust 0.8% gain.

A 1.6% increase in sales at auto dealers drove much of the profit. Purchases rose by 2.3% in electronics and appliance stores and 0.7% in restaurants and bars. Although some of October’s increase in retail sales reflected higher prices, it mainly indicated increased purchases.

Sales in some categories fell — including furniture stores, clothing stores and drug stores — though economists said the weakness likely stemmed, at least in part, from last month’s hurricanes. Sales at home and garden stores increased, potentially reflecting rebuilding activity following the storms.

“The moderate rate of price growth is allowing consumers to increase their spending,” said Tim Quinlan, economist at Wells Fargo. “People may not love how much it costs to eat out, but their spending on bars and restaurants is growing faster than prices.”

Friday’s report arrives as retailers prepare to enter the critically important Christmas shopping season in less than two weeks. Analysts envision a solid holiday shopping season, though perhaps not as robust as last year’s, with many shoppers under pressure from overall still high prices despite easing inflation.

The latest retail sales figures suggest the economy is growing strongly again in the current October-December quarter, after expanding at a steady 2.8% annual rate in the previous quarter. Since peaking at 9.1% more than two years ago, inflation has fallen to 2.6%, not far above pre-pandemic levels. And Americans’ take home pay has on average outpaced inflation for about 18 months.

Still, the post-pandemic surge in inflation has left prices about 20% higher than they were three years ago and dampened Americans’ view of the economy. It was a major reason why Donald Trump was able to capitalize on public discontent with the Biden-Harris administration and recapture the White House in last week’s election.

Despite high price levels, however, Trump is inheriting an economy where spending is strong, growth is solid and unemployment is low.

Other recent economic reports have also pointed to a healthy economy. In a sign that households, whose purchases drive most of the economy, will continue to spend, the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index showed its biggest monthly increase since 2021. The share of consumers who expect a recession in the next 12 months fell to its lowest point since the board first asked that question in 2022.

One caveat is that grocery store sales barely rose last month, a sign that many Americans may still be struggling to adjust to food prices that are still much higher than they were three years ago.

Lorraine Thompson, who was grocery shopping this week at a Walmart in Secaucus, N.J., said she’s not noticing any slowdown in inflation.

“Everything is loud,” she said. “The meat, the cheese.”

Thompson said she has been buying less cheese and doing more grocery shopping at Walmart because she thinks the prices there are lower than at other supermarkets.

The National Retail Federation has predicted that shoppers will increase their spending in November and December by between 2.5% and 3.5% compared to the same period a year ago. In the 2023 Christmas shopping season, spending had increased by a stronger 3.9% from 2022.

Some retailers say they expect consumers to spend more freely in the coming months. Affirm, a buy-now, pay-later company that has expanded as more consumers seek installment loans online, reported last week that growth in its active consumers accelerated for the third straight quarter to nearly 20 million.

“Everything we’re seeing indicates that the consumer feels they want to be out and spending,” Michael Linford, Affirm’s chief operating officer, told the Associated Press.

Analysts will dissect quarterly results next week from Walmart and Target, among others, to gauge how shoppers are navigating still-high prices and to gauge their mood after a presidential election that largely revolved around voter dissatisfaction with the economy.

One of the first major retailers to report third-quarter financial results was Home Depot, which continues to grapple with a decline in customer spending. But the drawdown was less severe than before, and its results beat Wall Street’s expectations.

Home Depot CEO Edward Decker said Trump’s proposed high import tariffs, if implemented, would intensify pressure on the company. But he added that Home Depot buys more than half of its merchandise domestically and elsewhere in North America.

Rugaber and D’Innocenzio write for the Associated Press. D’Innocenzio reported from New York.