What will it take to break “the current national divide, between the narrow but solid Republican majority and a Democratic Party that seems trapped in second place”? asks the Times. That pattern “may harden” into one “that will persist for years to come.” Bridging the divide will perhaps require “an act of God“, writes the Times.

The article cites a number of prominent historians and political scientists who predict a new era of sustained Republican electoral dominance. In one’s words: “The Republicans are basically out of control … There is no control in the federal government and no control in the world. They have an untethered game plan.”

This is not a new version of the 2024 election. The quote comes from 2004, when President George W. Bush won re-election by 2.4 percentage points, a slightly greater margin than Donald Trump had this year over Kamala Harris in the election results.

Of course, none of these predictions panned out. The presumed permanent Republican majority evaporated like Hurricane Katrinathe ongoing war in Iraq and the financial crisis caused President Bush’s popularity to plummet. As a result, Democrats retook the House and Senate in 2006and Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008.

Democrats are in disarray with no easy solution | Francis Wilkinson

Despite the lessons of this history, a new round of doomsayers is poised to write the Democrats’ obituary in 2024. According to one journalist, “The Democrats are a lost party. Come January, they will have little power in the federal government, and shrinking influence in courts and states.”

The Washington Post reports, “Many Democrats see their defeat more broadly — with Trump making inroads with Latinos, first-time voters and lower- and middle-income households, according to preliminary exit polls — not just as a series of campaign tactical mistakes, but as evidence of a broken lot with a brand in tatters.”

I think – as the author of a book about how political parties respond to electoral defeatsand as the 2004 example shows — it’s easy to overestimate the lasting impact of an election. Unforeseen events occur that change the political landscape in unpredictable ways. The party in power often makes mistakes. New candidates emerge to energize and inspire the defeated party.

The parties themselves are often unable to figure out the best way forward.

Following Mitt Romney’s loss in the 2012 presidential electionthe Republican National Committee ordered what it called an “autopsy” to determine how the party should move forward. The report called on Republicans to be more inclusive of women, young people, Asians, Latinos and gay Americans by softening their tone on immigration and social issues. The report was a thoughtful and thorough examination of the problems confronting the GOP.

Nonetheless, 2016 Donald Trump took the party in exactly the opposite direction and ended up winning anyway.

I’d be the last person to try to predict the 2028 election, but I’m skeptical of doom and gloom scenarios for the Democratic Party.

First, the 2024 election was extremely close. When all the votes are counted, it will probably be the closest popular vote contest since 2000. Also, it is possible that Donald Trump will fall below 50% of the popular vote. Every loss is hard, but it’s hardly The 49-state rout the Democrats endured against Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Furthermore, the 2024 results fall quite close to the results predicted by election models that were based on economic grounds. This suggests that voters registered dissatisfaction with poor economic conditions rather than offering a wholesale rejection of democratic ideology.

And while the public has grown less fond of liberal governance over the past four years, this is both natural and temporary. Political scientists have long observed the thermostatic nature of American politics. That’s a fancy way of saying that when a Republican occupies the White House, the public becomes more liberal. Conversely, under Democratic presidents, The American people are becoming more conservative. Given this pattern, it seems very likely that four years from now the public will be in a more liberal mood.

Democrats should also remember that Trump has been a uniquely polarizing and unpopular figure in American politics.

Despite a generally strong economy during his first term, he was never able to get above 50% approval. Trump did it himself no benefits in this regard. As political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch and Lynn Vavreck point out in their book on the 2020 electionon issue after issue during his first term, Trump rejected policies that the majority of Americans supported and instead chose those who only fit in with his Republican base. There seems little reason to believe that Trump will govern differently in his next term.

Since Trump cannot run again in 2028, it also means that Democrats are likely to face a better political environment in 2028. Since 1900, the out party (the party that does not control the White House) has won eight of the 11 elections without an incumbent president on the ballot. In fact, the last time the out-party failed to defeat a non-incumbent was nearly 40 years ago when Republican George HW Bush defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.

None of this guarantees a Democratic victory in 2028. Most importantly, a strong economy could be enough to lift the GOP to victory in 2028.

Nor should Democrats just assume that everything will be fine. Self-reflection is good for political parties as well as individuals.

Still, the lesson of history is that it is a good idea for Democrats to resist the temptation to disastrous their loss. Instead, they might consider using the Serenity Prayer as a guide for the next four years: “Give us the serenity to accept what cannot be changed, the courage to change what can be changed, and the wisdom to know the difference.”