Here’s why Trump is likely to win in a tie
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Here’s why Trump is likely to win in a tie

Kaneb0

Top line

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a fatal accident national surveys and the seven turning condition less than a week before Election Day — but there’s a small chance it could end up with a tie between the two candidates, and in the rare event there is one, it would likely result in Trump becoming president.

Key facts

If the election ends in a tie with Trump and Harris receiving 269 electoral votes each, the House would vote to choose the next president and the Senate would choose the vice president, with the House meeting on January 6, 2025.

Instead of the House holding a standard vote, each state delegation would choose a single candidate from among the three who received the most electoral votes, under the rules of the 12th Amendment to the Constitution — meaning large states like California (52 members of the House) and Texas (38 ) has as much power as states like Wyoming (only one member).

The 50 delegations would most likely vote along party lines, which would likely give Republicans the advantage since they are favored to control the majority of state delegations after Election Day (although the race for which party controls the majority of seats in the House is hotly contested).

The Senate, predicted to shift to Republican control, would then vote to choose the vice president, who would need 51 votes to win.

If a presidential candidate cannot receive votes from 26 delegations before Inauguration Day on January 20, and the Senate has already chosen a vice president, that person would become acting president until the House vote is decided.

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Is a tied race likely?

A 269-269 electoral college tie is considered highly unlikely – Fifty-Thirty-Eight predict a 1-in-300 chance. There are several scenarios that could result in a tie, including if Harris wins the states Biden won in 2020 except Michigan and Pennsylvania, or if Harris flips North Carolina and Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada. It would also be a tie if Harris wins the “blue wall” states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Trump wins the other four swing states plus Nebraska’s second congressional district, which covers Omaha and usually votes Democratic, while the rest of the state is reliably red.

What to look for

The election could also become “contingent” if a third-party candidate wins electoral votes and neither Trump nor Harris reach the 270-vote threshold to win. Based on polls, it is nearly impossible for voters in any state to assign electors to a third-party candidate, but about half of states do not legally require their electors to vote for the chosen candidate, meaning that if Trump and Harris each win 269 electors. , some could go rogue and pick a third-party candidate, who would then run on the House floor. “Faithless voters” are rare, but not unprecedented – in the 2016 election, five who pledged to Hillary Clinton voted and two to Trump voted for other candidates.

Big number

94. That’s the number of electoral votes to win in the seven swing states, plus Nebraska’s 2nd District. If Harris wins all the non-swing states that Biden won in 2020, as expected, she would have 225 electoral votes, leaving Trump with 219.

Has an Electoral College ever happened?

There hasn’t been an Electoral College since 1800, in the race between former President Thomas Jefferson and incumbent President John Adams, when Congress took 36 votes to elect Jefferson. In 1824, several candidates won electoral votes, with Andrew Jackson receiving the most, but not the majority. The House instead elected John Quincy Adams.

Key background

Each state is designated a total number of electors equal to its representation in the House and Senate, while the District of Columbia has three, for a total of 538. State political parties are tasked with nominating electors, usually at their state party convention. The Constitution prohibits federal government employees and federally elected officials from serving as electors; the individuals are usually notable political figures, such as state and local elected officials. Electors are “pledged,” but are not required to vote for their state’s winning candidate, although some states punish “faithful electors” who go rogue and vote for another candidate. Maine and Nebraska are the only two states that do not use a winner-takes-all approach to assigning electors, instead apportioning them based on a partial proportional system. Nebraska’s second congressional district is considered extremely important in closely contested elections like this one, as it would give Harris exactly 270 electoral votes if she wins all the states Biden won, plus the “blue wall” of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, what is considered her clearest path to victory.

Further reading

These demographics could decide the Trump-Harris race in the 7 battleground states (Forbes)

Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Trump Leads Sun Belt, Harris Leads North — And Pennsylvania’s Razorback (Latest Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Harris 2024 polls: Harris leads by 2 points in new poll – as polls tighten ahead of election (Forbes)

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