Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris holds a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the last six national polls — as polls show a virtual dead-sun race for the White House characterized by tossups in all seven turning conditionwhich keeps the race unpredictable as the election approaches.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a campaign rally on October 28 in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

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Key facts

Harris leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters recently Economist/YouGov survey out Wednesday, with 2% undecided and roughly 3% supporting other candidates (margin of error 3.6) — down slightly from Harris’ 49%-46% edge last week.

Harris is up 51%-47%—with only 3% still undecided—in a very large one probably voter survey by the Cooperative Election Study, a multi-university-backed survey conducted by YouGov, which surveyed around 50,000 people from 1 to 25 October.

Trump also trails Harris 44%-43% in a Reuters/Ipsos poll voting published Tuesday (margin of error 3 points), representing a narrowing of Harris’ lead since she entered the race in July, with the previous Reuters/Ipsos poll showing her by two points.

Harris is up three points over Trump, 50%-47%, in Morning Consult’s weekly surveywas also released Tuesday (margin of error 1 point), after she led by four points, 50%-46%, in the group’s previous two polls.

Harris leads Trump by four points, 51%-47%, in one ABC/Ipsos survey of likely voters was released Sunday, up slightly from her 50%-48% advantage in early October, while a CBS/YouGov poll on Sunday shows Harris 50%-49%, a change from the vice president’s 51%-48% lead in mid-October (the ABC poll had a margin of error of 2.5 and the CBS poll’s margin of error was 2.6).

An Emerson College Survey (October 23-24) was released on Saturday has the two candidates tied at 49%, after finding Harris leading 49% to 48% a week earlier (the poll has a margin of error of 3), marking the first time in Emerson’s weekly poll that Harris has not held a lead since August.

Trump and Harris are also locked at 48% among likely voters in a New York Times/Siena poll voting released Friday (margin of error 2.2), results that are “not encouraging” to Harris because Democrats have won the popular vote in recent elections even as they have lost the White House, the Times notes.

The Times poll represents a drop in support for Harris since the paper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump, while at least three polls in the past week show Trump with a slight advantage and six others found. Harris leads.

The candidates are also dead even, at 47%, in a CNN/SSRS voting released Friday (margin of error 3.1), also representing a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump 48% to 47% in the groups’ September poll, while their poll shortly after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race found Trump with 49% support and Harris with 46%.

Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in one CNBC poll of registered voters was released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in a The Wall Street Journal registered voter poll out Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) — a change in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal survey.

Trump also leads Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationally among likely voters, including those leaning toward one candidate, according to a HarrisX/Forbes survey was released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5), and he is up one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called leaners.

Harris erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has narrowed over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average for opinion polls.

Important reminder: Presidential polls have often been wrong

And there’s plenty of speculation about how they’re wrong this year — and who might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

Who do the polls predict will win the election, Harris or Trump?

Trump is favored to win the Electoral College 52 times out of 100, compared to 48 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast.

Big number

1.4. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump with in FiveThirtyEights the opinion poll average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics has the opinion poll average shows Trump up by 0.4, and Nate Silver has Harris up 0.9 points in his Silver Bulletin forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads the way Michigan and Wisconsinand Trump leads in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona; they are bound Nevadaaccording to the Silver Bulletin. However, many of the seven swing states have margins of less than one percentage point.

Surprising fact

A poll from NBC News released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found 54% supported Harris compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were undecided who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous leads held by Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 election and a 50-point lead in 2016. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect polls?

Pre-debate polls found Harris’s rise appeared to have plateaued, including an NPR/PBS/Marist investigation of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5 showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that the majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly affect the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena voting of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters in all demographic groups gave positive reviews of Harris’ debate performance on September 10, with 67% overall saying she did well, compared to 40% saying the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in a ABC News/Ipsos poll took days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in the end of August and beginning of August ABC/Ipsos polls – though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

Key background

Biden dropped out out of the July 21 race after resisting calls from his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid in the wake of his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately approved Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as his running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate pick. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 from Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is linked to increased Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has almost doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has stagnated at 71%, according to a Monmouth University voting was released August 14.

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Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls

Top line

Key facts

Important reminder: Presidential polls have often been wrong

Who do the polls predict will win the election, Harris or Trump?

Big number

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Surprising fact

How did the debate affect polls?

Key background

Further reading

Kaneb

Top line

Key facts

Important reminder: Presidential polls have often been wrong

Who do the polls predict will win the election, Harris or Trump?

Big number

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Surprising fact

How did the debate affect polls?

Key background

Further reading

Kaneb

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