The House elections led to a deadlock. Can Republicans figure out how to work with a slim majority?
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The House elections led to a deadlock. Can Republicans figure out how to work with a slim majority?

WASHINGTON (AP) — After one of the most chaotic and least productive sessions in modern history, voters made a surprising choice in the US House elections — they overwhelmingly stuck with the status quo.

House Republicans will hold on to a slim majorityand while the House’s exact partisan breakdown remains to be determined when votes are counted in a handful of states, the results of 435 House races across the country have produced little change in the House’s makeup.

In fact, it’s more like a stalemate: Republicans and Democrats have flipped seven seats each, while only eight statewide incumbents have lost their races.

The results show how entrenched the political dynamic has become in a legislative chamber meant to closely reflect the will of the people. Neither Donald Trump’s sweep of swing states nor a record of two years marked by conflicts among GOP House members seemed to weigh heavily on the outcome of the parliamentary election. Instead, the race for control of the House boiled down to just a couple of dozen politically divided districts and fewer really close races even as House candidates across the country spent a combined $1.5 billion, according to Open Secrets, which tracks political spending.

House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries called it “bitterly disappointing” to see his party’s bid to retake the chamber fall short by just a few seats. But he also made sure to note, “Despite the adverse political environment that happened with a Trump wave sweeping every single battleground state in America, Democrats will actually have increased seats in the new Congress.”

Still, that hasn’t stopped Republican leaders from taking a victory lap and talking about a mandate to carry out a conservative agenda.

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“On Election Day, Americans sent a clear message of rejecting the consequences of Democratic control,” said Rep. Richard Hudson, chairman of the GOP House Campaign Committee, adding: “That’s why voters gave House Republicans a majority and sent Donald Trump to the White House in a landslide .”

Trump is on course to win the popular vote for the first time, but it is likely to be a narrow victory when all the ballots are counted, reflecting how politically deadlocked the country has become. In the House, the margins will also be close, especially after Trump tapped several House Republicans for roles in his administration.

“Every single vote will count,” the parliament speaker said Mike Johnson. “Because if someone gets sick, or has a car accident or a late flight on their plane, then it affects the votes on the floor.”

Johnson’s party held on to the majority thanks in large part to two seats the party flipped in Pennsylvania, as well as three more that were redistributed by the GOP-controlled North Carolina General Assembly to favor their party.

Democrats, meanwhile, fared best in New York – Jeffries’ home state – where they flipped three seats. They also picked up two redistricting seats, in Louisiana and Alabama, that were ordered by courts to ensure fair representation for black voters.

But as the congressional map becomes clear after the latest redistribution cycle after the 2020 census, some Democratic advocates are concerned about the small number of House districts in play.

While Republicans have for years won more congressional seats than expected through gerrymandered districts, Democrats have fought back by redistricting in their favor and essentially leveled the playing field.

“The consequences are that the people’s house hardly reflects the will of the people. Voters have very little ability to change the balance of power in the House even when their mood changes,” said David Peters, who has written about gerrymandering and is a senior fellow at FairVote, an organization that advocates for voting reform.

FairVote estimates that 85% of parliamentary seats are now safe for one party – the highest percentage it has tracked in two decades. Political polarization also plays a role in that trend, and Peters said it has resulted in a dynamic where House members are less likely to work across the aisle and are more worried about facing a primary opponent who criticizes them for not being biased enough.

Several of the incumbents who lost re-election, like Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo of Colorado or Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro of New York, were some of the most willing to work on bipartisan legislation.

But now that Republicans hold the House, the Senate and the White House, there is little talk of working with Democrats. Instead, they hope to use a special budget process to implement bipartisan legislation aimed at extending tax credits, strengthening immigration enforcement at the southern border and dismantling federal regulations.

To do so, they must also overcome the struggles that have hampered them for the past two years – and cracks are already showing in their unity.

In an internal vote this week, Johnson won his party’s nomination to remain speaker when the new Congress begins on January 3. But lawmakers are still haggling over whether to keep rules that allowed a small group of conservatives to trigger the impeachment of Johnson’s predecessor, former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

With a razor-thin majority, almost any Republican can block the legislation from moving forward, as the conservative bloc has done periodically.

“As usual, it’s going to be very difficult for Congress to get anything done,” said Rob Speel, a professor of political science at Penn State Behrend.