SEC football gets underway this weekend as No. 23 Missouri takes on No. 21 South Carolina. Here’s what to look for, with our updated prediction for the game.

South Carolina is on a roll lately, winning three straight games, averaging 36 points each time during that streak, and working behind one of college football’s best defensive units right now.

Missouri moved to 3-2 in SEC play after knocking off Oklahoma last week and while this wasn’t quite what was expected after winning 11 games a year ago, there is still a path to the College Football Playoff if the Tigers can win the rest of the way.

What can we expect when the Gamecocks welcome the Tigers in this SEC matchup?

Here’s what to watch for when South Carolina and Missouri meet in this Week 12 football matchup, with our updated matchup prediction.

1. Fight forward. South Carolina’s calling card remains that ferocious defensive front seven, ranking third nationally with 33 total sacks this season while averaging 3.67 sacks per game.

The Gamecocks are also top 15 in FBS with 69 tackles for loss and 7th with 7.67 negative plays per game, ranking 3rd in depriving opponents of 353 total yards as a result of those stops.

Missouri is just 77th nationally allowing 2.22 sacks per game and 20 sacks on the season and is 43rd in the nation with 45 tackles for loss this year and 5 negative plays per game.

2. Air it out. Drew Pyne is expected to step in at quarterback for Missouri as starter Brady Cook is still dealing with injuries, and while he has two of the nation’s top skill threats in Luther Burden and Theo Wease at his disposal, the Gamecocks have been stingy against the pass.

Carolina ranks 33rd in the FBS allowing just over 194 passing yards per game, holding opposing quarterbacks to just 55.8 percent completion, has intercepted 11 passes and surrendered just 7 touchdowns through the air.

Burden and Wease will be the best receivers on the field in this game, but Missouri will need to get the ball to them quickly to counter the Gamecock’s pass rush from the edges.

3. Mal and pound. South Carolina has significantly improved its blocking since the off week, allowing no sacks in that span after surrendering 10 prior to that point, and the result is a more efficient offense, especially when it comes to running the football.

Raheim Sanders is coming off his second straight and third total game with 100 rushing yards and 5 of his 10 touchdowns have come in his last three appearances.

Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers is a capable threat on the ground as well, ranking second on the team in rushing with 4 of the team’s 18 touchdowns on the ground.

Missouri is respectable but not spectacular at defending against the rush, ranking 52nd nationally in allowing 133 yards per game and just under 4 yards per carry with only 10 touchdowns allowed, and 9 of those came in the team’s 2 losses.

Most football computer prediction models are backing the Gamecocks over the Tigers this week.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

South Carolina comes out ahead in the majority 69.6 percent of computer simulations of the game.

The other 30.4 percent of Sims believe the Tigers will pull through and avoid a third loss.

How does that translate to an expected margin of victory in the game?

South Carolina is projected to be 7.4 points better than Missouri on the same field in both teams’ current form, according to the model’s latest forecast.

If we round that number down, let’s call it a touchdown game in favor of the Gamecocks with this projection.

More… South Carolina vs Missouri prediction: What the analytics say

South Carolina is a 13.5-point favorite against Missouri, according to the updated FanDuel Sportsbook lines.

FanDuel lists the total as 41.5 points for the game (Over -110, Under -110).

And that put the money odds for South Carolina at -630 and for Missouri at +450 to win outright.

The key matchup in this game will be Carolina’s defensive front against Missouri’s blockers, and while the Gamecocks should win in the trenches, the Tigers are capable enough to hold things up for a while to slow down those edge rushers to some degree.

Missouri has the ability to marginally disrupt Carolina’s attempts to control the game by running the ball and forcing Sellers to throw the ball a little more than Shane Beamer would prefer.

But the Tigers’ quarterback situation is precarious enough to confidently pick against their solid receivers from doing enough damage to pull off any upsets here.

College Football HQ picks the…

More… South Carolina vs Missouri score prediction by expert football model

When: Sat 16 November
Time: 4:15 PM Eastern
TV: SEC Network

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Game odds are updated regularly and may change.

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