The race for the final wild card spot in the AFC is still wide open and the Miami Dolphins have a breath of life. If they want any chance to get back into the race, a win against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 11 is an absolute must.

The Raiders are coming off their BYE, but have shown some fight all season with an offense that has been one of the worst in the NFL.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds for the game and then predict the final result.

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

Moneyline

Total

The Dolphins opened as 7-point favorites this week. The line then shifted to Dolphins -8, but has since shifted back half a point to settle at Dolphins -7.5. Total for the game has dropped 1.5 points from 45.5 to 44.0.

In this week’s edition of “The road to 272 ventures” I broke down why I’m back Dolphins to win and cover as significant favorites.

It may prove to be a little too late for the Dolphins, but they looked to finally hit their stride for the first time this season on Monday night when they beat the Rams in convincing fashion. Now they get to host one of the worst teams in the NFL in the Raiders in Week 11.

I’m going to fade the Raiders, who come into this game ranked dead last in the EPA. I have no faith in their head coach, Antonio Pierce, who constantly makes bad coaching decisions in every aspect, including personnel, game plan and in game decision making. I can’t imagine betting this team or this offense against an offense as dynamic as what the Dolphins have to offer.

If I’m going to predict the final score, I have to take a look at the total as well. It’s no easy task in a game between an offense I have a lot of confidence in and an offense that stinks. That being said, I believe in the Dolphins offense so much that I think a total of 44 is a little too low. Gardner Minshew can occasionally push the ball down enough times to help the Raiders contribute to that total and then the Dolphins offense will do the rest.

Final score prediction: Dolphins 32, Raiders 13

The odds are updated periodically and may change.

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