Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson Predictions: Expert Picks and Odds for 2024 Netflix Boxing Fight
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Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson Predictions: Expert Picks and Odds for 2024 Netflix Boxing Fight

One of the biggest fights in boxing will start from AT&T Stadium in Texas when Mike Tyson returns to the ring for the first time since 2005 to take on the YouTuber Jake Paul on November 15.

Here are the pre-match odds and prediction of the outcome of this megaclash.

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Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson odds

  • Jake Paul -205, Mike Tyson +170
  • Paul via KO/TKO: +140
  • Paul via decision: +300
  • Tyson via KO/TKO: +260
  • Tyson via decision: +900
  • Drag: +1000

Jake Paul is the betting favourite at -205 as of Friday morning, according to FanDuel Sportsbook, while Mike Tyson is a +170 underdog.

Paul was 1-0 before being beaten on the undercard of Tyson’s exhibition fight against Roy Jones Jr. 2020. Since then he has beaten several MMA fighters and decent boxing veterans. On a four-game winning streak, the brash Paul looks to make a statement while earning millions along the way.

Tyson, known as “The Baddest Man on the Planet”, pulverized his opponents with ease. The former undisputed heavyweight champion has had several triumphs against the likes of Trevor Berbick and Michael Spinks, but also setbacks against supreme underdog Buster Douglas and Hall of Famers Evander Holyfield and Lennox Lewis.

Tyson retired in 2005, and while he has dealt with health issues over the years, he returns to the ring to try to silence the loud Paul.

“He (Paul) has grown significantly as a boxer over the years, so it will be a lot of fun to see what the will and ambition of a ‘kid’ can do with the experience and ability of a GOAT,” Tyson said.

“It’s a full circle moment that will be more than exciting to watch; when I started him on his boxing journey on the undercard of my fight with Roy Jones and now I plan to finish him.”

Jake Paul vs Mike Tyson prediction

Regardless of the winner, one thing is certain: the fight will not be pretty.

Tyson is coming off a massive layoff and looked rusty against Jones. At the same time, Paul is a wild card and can often be unpredictable.

Paul is a power master but can also fight in and out of range. He landed 49 of 157 shots (31.2%) against Tommy Fury and knocked him down Love Island star in a loss. Against Nate Diaz, Paul landed 174 of 491 shots (35.4%) and landed 140 for power. Of those shots, 34 jabs kept Diaz in check.

The Diaz fight was one of his most impressive wins, as his cardio was tested against someone known for wearing an opponent out.

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Against Andre August, Paul used his jabs to push his opponent back, and he used jabs, uppercuts and body shots to bully Ryan Bourland, who had a four-and-a-half year fight before facing Paul. Against Mike Perry, Paul had 96 punches, 52 of them strikes. He knocked Perry down three times.

Tyson has 44 wins via knockout. Of those wins, 34 didn’t make it out of the third round. But his last knockout win was in 2003.

Against Roy Jones Jr. Tyson landed 57 punches with a 34.7% connection mark. He landed hard shots to Jones’ body while only landing double-digit shots twice in the eight-round fight. Both looked tired, but Tyson looked the more effective fighter. That was when he was 54.

The fight can realistically end in several ways. Tyson can either knock Paul out in the first round or vice versa. Paul is also able to wear Tyson out throughout the fight, forcing him to push forward and use cardio. The struggle to go far would be fascinating to watch. How will it affect Tyson’s endurance as it continues?

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One shot from either of them can realistically end the fight. It’s going to be a real row at the start though if they want to put on a good show. That doesn’t mean it will be an immediate knockout, but unlike Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor it’s hard to see it going far.

My hope? For the least violent results possible.

If Tyson gets knocked down, which seems likely here, hopefully he’ll get back up. The Prediction: Paul pulls up a little to give the crowd their due before taking Tyson down. It will be a circus show anyway, but a successful one that leaves Netflix, Paul and Tyson patting themselves on the back.

Sporting News Prediction: Jake Paul via TKO (round six)