A critical SEC rivalry kicks off loaded with College Football Playoff implications as two-loss, No. 11 Georgia welcomes No. 6 Tennessee with everything on the line. Let’s check out the latest prediction for the game from an expert analytical football model that projects points and picks winners.

Georgia faces a must-win situation in November with two losses and an ugly performance at Ole Miss as the selection committee keeps an eye on what’s going on between the hedges after knocking the Bulldogs out of the top dozen in this week’s bracket seeding.

Tennessee has more room to maneuver with a loss at the top of the SEC standings, but still needs to impress voters with a good performance on the road against a ranked rival.

What do the analytical models suggest will happen when the Volunteers visit the Bulldogs in this SEC rivalry game?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Georgia and Tennessee compare in this Week 12 college football matchup.

The models are siding with the Bulldogs over the Vols in this matchup, but in a very close game.

SP+ predicts Georgia to beat Tennessee by one estimated score of 27 to 23 and will win the game with an expected margin of 4.4 points to avoid a third loss.

The model gives the Bulldogs a 61 percent chance of clean victory against the Vols.

SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most durable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, the SP+ model is 292-263-8 against the spread with a 52.6 winning percentage after going 30-19-1 (61%) last weekend.

Georgia is one 10.5 point favorite against Tennessee, according to the updated lines posted on FanDuel Sportsbook for the game.

FanDuel added the total 47.5 points for the game (Over -114, Under -106).

And it lists the money odds for Georgia on -385 and for Tennessee at +300 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

If you do, you’ll be in the majority of players who expect the Vols to scare the Bulldogs, according to the latest consensus picks for the game.

Tennessee sheep 66 percent of plays to win outright in the streak or to keep the final margin to 10 or fewer points in a loss.

The other one 34 percent of bets project Georgia will win the game and cover the big spread.

Tennessee ranks No. 10 nationally in scoring average 19.9 points better than their opponents this season when counting all the points in the wins and their one loss.

Georgia has been 8 points better than competitors on average in 2024.

Those averages have gotten closer over the past three games.

Tennessee has been 12 points better than other teams in that span, while Georgia has played things close and come out on top 3.7 points better than competitors during that time.

Things look even when considering location, though the Vols have a slight advantage.

Tennessee has averaged 15.3 points better than opponents when they play on the road this season, compared to Georgia coming out 14 points better than the competitors when they are at home.

Most other analytical models also favor the Bulldogs over the Volunteers in this SEC clash.

That includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Georgia has come out as the home favorite and come out ahead 61.7 percent of the latest computer simulations of the game.

That leaves Tennessee as the presumptive winner in the remaining ones 38.3 percent of the sims.

But these figures represent a pure calculation of win-loss. What do they suggest about a possible margin of victory in the game?

Expect a very close one.

Georgia is expected to be 4.3 points better than Tennessee on the same field in both teams’ current lineups, according to the model’s latest forecast.

More… Georgia vs Tennessee prediction: What the analytics say

Georgia is second among SEC teams with one 75.5 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff, according to FPI statistics.

Georgia will win that model project 9.6 games this season.

Tennessee has one 74.3 percent chance to make the playoffs, as third in the conference and will win 10.3 games in ’24, according to index.

When: Sat 16 November
Time: 7:30 PM Eastern
TV: ABC Network

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Game odds are updated regularly and may change.

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