Russia moves forward in Ukraine amid talk of negotiations
6 mins read

Russia moves forward in Ukraine amid talk of negotiations

A building was partially destroyed in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine on November 11, 2024.

In this Monday, Nov. 11, 2024, photo provided by Ukrainian emergency services, a building is seen destroyed by a Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine. (Ukraine emergency services via AP)


KYIV – As Russian forces continue their tortuous advance on the supply hub of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, a new offensive appears almost afoot in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region, Ukrainian troops said this week, in what would be a major escalation along 600-mile long front.

A build-up of Russian troops in southeastern Ukraine comes as uncertainty looms over how a Trump presidency will affect the war and whether the two sides will be pushed to the negotiating table. President-elect Donald Trump has long claimed he will bring a swift end to the war, and some in Ukraine fear that would mean Kiev capitulating to Russia.

Trump spoke by phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week and urged him not to escalate the war, in a conversation the Kremlin denies took place. In the week since, however, Russian forces have redoubled their efforts on several fronts.

Emboldened by the arrival of North Korean troops, they have launched a major offensive in recent days in Russia’s Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces control territory they seized in a cross-border offensive in August. They are also pushing to encircle the eastern town of Kurakhove, which could pave the way for an imminent attack on the railway hub of Pokrovsk – long a Russian target and already under regular attack.

This week they also launched a major attack on the northeastern city of Kupyansk, which Russia occupied in 2022 before being retaken by Ukrainian troops. On Wednesday, Ukraine’s General Staff reported that Russian assault troops, dressed in uniforms intended to resemble Ukraine’s, attacked Ukrainian positions in the Kupyansk direction with tanks and other armored vehicles.

There was also a major missile attack on Kiev this week, after months of attacks by cheaper – and often less effective – drones.

The renewed Russian pressure, even as Trump’s win has spurred talk of a return to negotiations, has Ukrainian soldiers expecting little let-up in the offensive.

Roman, 22, a battalion commander in Ukraine’s 31st Brigade stationed directly south of the city of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region, said Russia is launching an attack from so many sides because Putin knows negotiations may come and “he will have much more leverage with control of this entire territory as a result.”

Roman, who spoke on the condition that he be identified only by his first name in accordance with military rules, has spent three months on the southeastern front, where he said Russia recently rotated out a well-trained air assault brigade and replaced it with a regular mechanized brigade.

The change has temporarily eased some pressure on Ukrainian troops as the new brigade is equipped with fewer professional drone pilots and artillery pieces. But they know any reprieve is temporary: The rotation, Roman said, is likely to mean Russian air strike troops — who held their positions for more than a year without rest — take a short break at the rear to reorganize and recruit before deploying to attack weak points in the front line.

Still, he said, the fight will not be easy for the Russians, who will face territory much more prepared for progress than in the eastern Donetsk region.

“There are significantly more fortifications in this area,” Roman said. “The second line of defense extends practically along the entire front line, plus it’s constantly being built.”

Yaroslav Galas, 52, a major in Ukraine’s 128th Mountain Assault Brigade deployed to the Zaporizhzhia front, said that after a long period of trading “micro-advances” — where the two sides would battle back and forth for control of a specific position — Awareness is spreading that Russia is now preparing a major attack.

“The main sign is the clear build-up of larger Russian forces in the area. Additional units are being deployed – not only to the second or third lines, but also to the front line,” he said, referring to aerial surveillance that has gathered information about the arrival of new troops. “Our Infantry units observe all this and understand that the Russians are preparing for something significant.”

The Russian troops sent to the Zaporizhzhia front appear “inexperienced and untried,” Galas said. Despite constant drone surveillance, these new forces have attempted to advance in wheeled vehicles in broad daylight, making it easier for Ukraine to target and destroy them.

Ukrainian troops are trying to use the time before any major attack to place more mines and build new fortifications, Galas said.

But the looming offensive has injected anxiety into the surrounding area. Russian drones recently began reaching villages near the front line where children still lived, Galas said, prompting many residents to leave amid fears of a Russian escalation.

Russian forces have occupied parts of the Zaporizhzhia region since 2022, including the nuclear power plant that Ukraine warns poses a major threat under Russian control. For Putin, advancing toward the regional capital would put a big price within reach — and help in his bid to effectively control a territory he has declared part of Russia.

Lieutenant Serhiy Skibchyk, the communications chief of Ukraine’s 65th Mechanized Brigade, which is stationed near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region, also said that Russian forces have recently stepped up their attacks.

Over the summer, the Russians regularly dropped glide bombs and other explosives on fields to identify landmines and Ukrainian positions, and now infantry attacks are increasing.

Late last week, Skibchyk said, 15 Russian troops on motorcycles tried to breach his brigade’s positions but failed, and Ukrainian troops chased them into various hideouts throughout the day. This tactic has become common in the region, where Russia will launch simultaneous drone and infantry strikes to put pressure on Ukrainian troops.

Every day, Russia loses between 10 and 20 soldiers launching these attacks. “We are doing everything we can to ensure that any potential enemy offensive in this sector is either completely thwarted or ends in failure and heavy casualties,” Skibchyk said.

All new Russian casualties join those from the attempted Russian offensive last spring.

“Their remains,” said Skibchyk, “still litter the fields and tree lines around Robotyne.”