India’s Modi is likely to find solace in Trump’s return and a shared worldview
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India’s Modi is likely to find solace in Trump’s return and a shared worldview

NEW DELHI (AP) — Donald Trump’s return to the White House has many countries worried and recalculates where they stand with the US, but India appears to welcome the change that could embolden nationalist leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“I know many countries today are nervous about the United States, let’s be honest about that,” Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said over the weekend. India was “not one of them.” A call from Modi “was among the first three calls, I think, that President (elect) Trump took,” he added.

A second Trump presidency is likely to play out in New Delhi’s favor, experts say, especially as Modi seeks to restore India’s relationship with the West after recent standoffs over his refusal to join sanctions against Russia or condemn its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 .Modi has also been criticized over India’s democratic backsliding.

“Trump’s victory means that the Indian policies that have put New Delhi at odds with the West … will no longer be a source of concern for Washington,” said Michael Kugelman, director of South Asia at the Wilson Center.

There may be gaps in the trade, immigration and climate change targets – but overall, “the return of Trump means that India’s relations with the West – and specifically its most powerful country – will get a boost,” he added.

Modi has sought to make India a rising global player with a fast-growing economy that can counter China. But the critics say his authoritarian politics and the right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party have deeply polarized the country with minorities increasingly marginalized and the right to freedom of expression and press under attack.

When President Joe Biden honored Modi with a state visit last year he walked a tightrope as activists and groups pressured him to confront Modi about his human rights record. Still, the two leaders rolled out new business deals on defense and technology.

Such concerns will not be a problem for Trump, said Uday Chandra, assistant professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar. “He’s a refreshing reset from the Indian perspective … he’s much more transactional.”

Trump, long an open admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is also likely to be more understanding of India’s strategic partnership with Moscow, which dates back to the Cold War, its record purchases of Russian crude and its refusal to take sides in the war in Ukraine. “This was the real kind of thorn in the side of India-US relations for the last two years … but with Trump, I don’t see this being a problem,” Chandra said.

A hot-button issue is trade. During his first term, trade differences between the two countries came to the fore with Trump calling India the “tariff king” over disagreements over agricultural goods, Harley Davidson motorcycles and medical equipment. In 2019, he revoked the country’s special trade privileges and India responded by slapping tariffs on more than two dozen US goods.

This time Trump wants introduce a “universal” tax of 10% or 20% on all imports and raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%. India, which counts the US as its second largest trading partner, will not be an exception.

“New Delhi will have to do more than tinker with its policies to deal with Trump’s emphasis on fair trade,” said C Rajamohan, a professor at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore.

Immigration could turn into a sore point if Trump tries to curb skilled migration. Native Americans have often been the largest group applying H1-B work visa but Trump had called the visa program “very bad” and “unfair” for American workers.

Progress on climate change and clean energy could also suffer.

“India and the US have done quite a lot on this front in the last four years – but this is something that could be undone because a Trump administration is more aligned with the fossil fuel industry than with green technology,” said Milan Vaishnav, South Asia Program Director at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Both Trump and Modi embody strongman tactics, counting on a passionate support base and have increased polarization to consolidate votes. And unlike liberal leaders in the West, Trump doesn’t see Modi’s domestic politics as problematic — or even relevant, Kugelman said.

“They are both ardent nationalists committed to making their nations stronger at home and abroad,” he added.

Analysts also point to the personal bond between the two. When Trump visited India in 2020, Modi held him an event at the world’s largest cricket stadium.

The year before, Trump likened Modi to Elvis Presley for his crowd-pulling power at a joint rally in Texas. In his congratulatory post to Trump on X last week, Modi shared pictures of the two leaders hugging, smiling and holding hands.

“There’s a bromance between the two of them,” Chandra said. “But they are also united by a shared worldview – that we are in a post-liberal world and that liberalism as an ideology for conducting global politics is no longer viable. That is as true in India as it is in America.”