Elon Musk isn’t the only one whose bet on Donald Trump is paying off.

A mysterious French trader made $49 million after betting on the former president to run to victory.

While many professional pollsters said the race was too close to call and that both Kamala Harris and Trump had equal chances to win the race, Theo begged to differ.

The trader, known only as ‘Theo’, bet Trump would win all the key swing states as well as victories in the popular vote, according to multiple media reports.

But what do we know? And how did he do it?

Let’s take a closer look:

What do we know?

The trader, known as “Trumpvalen”, made his money on the crypto gaming website Polymarket.

According to Wall Street Journal, Theo said he bet over $30 million by betting through four anonymous accounts.

He described himself as a wealthy Frenchman and a trader who worked for several banks.

Theo has maintained that he is politically unaffiliated and that he has nothing but a financial motive for his ventures.

Theo has been in constant contact with a reporter from Wall Street Journal – to whom he has described his method.

According to The telegraphTheo goes by the name Fredi9999 on the platform.

How did he do it?

The newspaper reported that he began using his mathematical expertise on the subject during the summer.

Theo told the reporter, instead of relying on conventional opinion polls, he instead chose the “neighborhood method”.

Instead of asking people who they would vote for, he instead asked which candidate they thought their neighbors would vote for.

The telegraph reported that Theo commissioned some of these examinations himself.

Theo said he believes that while people may be insecure about talking about their own political beliefs, this is not the case when it comes to the views of their friends and neighbours.

According to Business Standard, this approach undermines what he believes are the heredity biases of traditional surveys.

Theo said the mainstream polls consistently underestimated Trump’s popularity — especially in key swing states.

Theo said his own polls showed the depth of Trump’s support was much deeper — and stronger — than traditional polls showed.

He also brought up again the “shy Trump voters” – those who vote for Trump but refuse to tell others they have done so.

Theo said he believes many supporters of the president-elect refuse to do so — and are thus underestimated by pollsters, especially in swing states.

The telegraph quoted Theo as saying that French surveys were much more accurate than those in the United States.

“In France it’s different!! The credibility of the pollsters is more important: they want to be as close to the actual results as possible. The culture is different here, Theo argued.

“Public opinion would have been better prepared if recent polls had measured that neighborhood effect,” he added.

Polymarket has confirmed parts of his story, according to the paper.

But Theo’s story may not have a happy ending – at least for players in France.

According to QZ, Theo’s story of success at Polymarket is attracting the attention of regulators in France.

The country already regulates online gambling heavily.

“We are aware of this site and are currently investigating its operation and compliance with French gambling legislation,” said a spokesperson for French betting regulator Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) Bloomberg News on Thursday.

Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has claimed that Trump’s team “literally found out they won” from the platform.

Theo was not alone in making a big bet.

Canadian streamer Félix Lengyel, better known as xQC, bet $700,000 on Harris and lost.

Lengyel, who was given odds of 2.30, would have earned around $1.6 million in the event of a Harris win.

“This hit LMFAO better, the odds were too good I had to. Don’t get it twisted USA. PS: Don’t get mad I can’t even vote I’m Canadian,” the streamer wrote on social media app X.

With input from agencies

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2024 US election

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